Why Media Coverage of the Ames Straw Poll Doesn’t Have To Play into the GOP’s Hands

An issue I’ve been doing some thinking about in my position at Iowa Independent has to do with the Republican Party of Iowa’s Ames Straw Poll. It is the RPI’s biggest fund raiser every campaign cycle, and it only raises money because of all the media it gets. Campaigns pay a ton of money to essentially buy votes — they buy huge blocks of tickets and then give them away to their supporters, who promise to vote for them once they get inside the building. Media then cover the results, and it’s big news.

But, although media coverage is what makes the Straw Poll successful, it also hurts GOP candidates. The event’s winner generally gets a boost, but, like the Iowa Caucuses themselves, the Straw Poll is an expectations game.

For second- or third-tier candidates, it is a huge opportunity: a “top 3″ finish would elevate them to first-tier status overnight. But for top-tier candidates, it’s all risk and no benefit: if a candidate like Giuliani wins the Straw Poll, nobody cares because he’s already the front-runner nationally. If he participates and loses, it’s egg on his face. So Giuliani is skipping it.

It’s also worth considering where the money that goes into RPI coffers is coming from. Event attendees aren’t going to be a significant source of income; the money is coming from Republican campaigns. The RPI is happy to get money wherever it can find it, but in taking money from campaigns, they aren’t adding any additional money to the pool of resources that will be available to Republicans during the general election; they are merely redistributing it.

The result of the media coverage, then, does more harm than good for Republicans. More coverage makes it harder for candidates to say no, forcing them to spend resources on an event that can only hurt the top tier — and that could easily be manipulated to elevate less electable, second- or third-tier candidates. And the amount of money the RPI raises comes from campaign accounts — not grassroots contributors. It’s really more of a “fund shuffler” than a “fund raiser.”

Some extra food for thought: The Iowa Democratic Party actually held a Straw Poll before the RPI decided to do it, from what I’ve been told.  Then, under pressure from national people or campaigns, the IDP did away with their Straw Poll and actually prohibited its county conventions from hosting any of their own.  My suspicion is that they recognize that although Straw Polls are good for getting money, they are bad for getting their candidates elected in the long run.