McCain Not Looking for First Place in Iowa

Via Taegan Goddard, we get a look at the McCain “strategy memo” being leaked to McCain supporters to be used as talking points for how the Arizona Senator can come back to win the nomination. It’s nearly 10 pages long, but right on page 3 he lists bullet points describing his chances in Iowa:

Point one: “John McCain has a strong grassroots organization with special emphasis on social conservatives. The principal structure has been in place since January and only grown since then.”

With his staff halved over the past two weeks (and with multiple state director and top-level staff resignations), the “principal structure” has been gutted. But McCain does have some hold-out supporters. His social conservative “infrastructure” is also on the rocks: his top social conservative leader Marlys Popma, who serves as his “coalitions director” in Iowa, resigned last week before changing her mind and deciding to think about it a little longer.

Point two: “Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson have spent little time in the state and have limited organizational infrastructure in Iowa.”

True on both counts. Giuliani’s, though, is significantly better than Thompson’s seemingly nonexistent infrastructure, as the former Mayor has recruited some important Republicans from the State Senate.

Point three: “Mitt Romney is heavily invested in Iowa, having already purchased hundreds of thousands of dollars in television ads and will likely continue to attempt to ‘buy’ a caucus victory.”

Also true. Romney has spent a ton of money here (and elsewhere — his burn rate is as bad as McCain’s). But McCain doesn’t mention that it has paid dividends in terms of infrastructure. Yeah, he’s paying for infrastructure, but, at the end of the day, every campaign spends money on field and outreach staff to build infrastructure.

The conclusion for the campaign in Iowa reveals something interesting, though: “With a strong organization and a great campaign appeal, John McCain will over-perform in Iowa.”

Of note, McCain’s campaign does not say he will win Iowa. They expect at this point to lose to Romney but to come in second place, and their talking point will be that Romney “bought” his first-place finish. Contrast that outlook with this outlook for New Hampshire and South Carolina: they predict “the momentum of a New Hampshire win sweeping us to a victory in South Carolina.” So they expect to win these two states but not Iowa.

Will McCain admit that next time he’s in town?