Ruffini Wrong on Ron Paul

Republican online strategist Patrick Ruffini predicts that Ron Paul will win second place in the Ames Straw Poll next month. He should pay more attention to the RPI’s rules. Ruffini writes of Paul:

He leads the second tier in cash-on-hand. He was able to get 1,200 people out to the Hy-Vee (has any candidate done something that big on their own, not at an RPI event?). His home base in Texas isn’t that far of a drive, and his people are motivated enough to come in from out of state for him. And he’s making a big push on his Web site, which for all intents and purposes, is his campaign.

Unfortunately, out-of-staters can’t vote in the Ames Straw Poll unless somehow they get their hands on Iowa driver licenses. I was at Paul’s dueling event the same day and place as the ICA/ITR forum, and almost everyone in the crowd was either committed to another Republican candidate (and there for the free food) or from another state.

That said, I won’t discount Ron Paul’s ability to draw a crowd — or even his ability to outperform expectations at the straw poll. But his large out-of-state fanbase won’t be much help when the votes actually get counted.

And a thrifty campaign has other things to worry about at the Straw Poll, like how they are going to afford the tickets they’d need to place in the contest. Most campaigns buy tickets for their supporters in large blocks, making the event essentially just a contest to see which campaign can convince enough Iowans to take a free bus ride to Ames for a glorified tailgate party and a quick vote.

But Paul’s web site indicates that they aren’t planning to make it free, and their supporters will have to “be willing” to buy their own $35 tickets:

Who can vote?

You must meet all voting requirements in order to vote:

• Be 18 years of age or older on Election Day, November 4, 2008
• Be an Iowa resident
• Be willing to purchase a $35 ticket

Don’t they know how the RPI works? You have to give them your money to win.