‘Second Tier’ Candidates Breaking Through in Iowa

New reasons emerged this week to doubt the tier system most commentators use to describe the 2008 presidential horse race.

Conventional wisdom — here in Iowa and across the country — dictates that the three candidates to watch on the Democratic side are Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama, and former Sen. John Edwards.

Sen. Chris Dodd, Gov. Bill Richardson, and Sen. Joe Biden struggle to get attention in a “second tier” despite recent signs of momentum.

Tuesday, the Dodd campaign announced a major endorsement from the International Association of Firefighters. As I wrote (after following the story for a day and a half),

The IAFF’s endorsement is highly coveted because of the influence it had in the 2004 presidential race. In September 2003 when the IAFF endorsed Sen. John Kerry, that candidates’ Iowa poll numbers hovered around the low teens. After Kerry went on to win the 2004 Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, columnists and pundits credited the IAFF’s endorsement, which was Kerry’s largest endorsement before he won Iowa, with much of the Massachusetts Senator’s success.

Lynda Waddington agreed with my assessment of the endorsement’s importance when she wrote, “There is no over-playing the boon this is for the Dodd campaign, which seems to be gaining traction in Iowa and New Hampshire.” With a little luck and some elbow grease, the endorsement could truly put a top 3 finish in Iowa within Dodd’s reach. (Apparently at least a bit worried by Dodd’s IAFF endorsement, the Clinton campaign rushed out a somewhat less significant endorsement Tuesday from the United Transportation Union to drown out Dodd’s coverage.)

Sen. Joe Biden, who also appears to be gaining some traction, has been boasting of new state legislative endorsements in front of Iowa crowds for the past few weeks. He hastens to note that he has accumulated more endorsements from state legislators than any other Democratic candidate, although he has been promising a roll-out of names for weeks that I am not sure has come. The most recent campaign press release (from less than a week ago) names six state legislators as public supporters, and my impression was that there were more.

Still, if we take Biden’s word that his endorsement list is growing, it indicates momentum — “Joe-mentum,” I should say — in Iowa. It also substantiates claims from informal conversations I have had with state legislators who feel that Biden made the strongest showing of all of the presidential candidates in front of their legislative caucuses. Even legislators who are supporting other candidates have indicated that Biden impressed them. (Even I have a memorable Biden story, which I will not share here, simply because I should probably treat it as off-record).

And then there’s Gov. Bill Richardson, whose cute TV ads began his upward tick in Iowa polls earlier this summer. Richardson — like Dodd and Biden, but perhaps even moreso — has spent a great deal of time traversing the hawkeye state, meeting with virtually anyone who wants to hear him speak. He spoke at a Wells Fargo corporate training in Des Moines, the state veterans’ home in Marshalltown, a gay pride event in Cedar Rapids, and a Latino event in West Liberty, all in the last few months. And then, of course, he stumped in dozens of other towns.

Richardson does not give poll-tested answers to questions at events, but neither does he simply give audiences straight talk. In fact, as I have remarked to many who know me over the past few months, Richardson is very much a panderer.

But because Richardson exudes so much personality and humility, his pandering does not come off as disingenuous. It is easy to feel that, at least during the time that it takes Richardson to tell his audience what he thinks they want to hear, he actually believes the red meat that he is throwing you. And he sweats more than everybody else, painting Iowans the perfect picture of a candidate: of someone who is truly willing to work for their support, even when it means a few minor contradictions and misstatements.

Iowans have learned over decades to stop looking for substance in everyday stump speeches anyway. Richardson has a likeable, humble personality and a resume that is close to perfect, and that is a strong combination.

Anyone who has seen all of the candidates individually will not be surprised by news that the second tier is closing in on the first tier here, because Dodd, Richardson, and Biden all have qualities that have led candidates in previous campaign cycles to caucus victories.

And the media’s focus on experience, pushed largely by the Clinton campaign, has only helped Dodd, Richardson, and Biden, who are more experienced than any of the top 3. The “experience” meme may have helped Clinton in national polls; but, in Iowa, where people don’t ignore the candidates who don’t get TV time (because sometimes going to see those candidates is the only thing to do on a Monday afternoon in Tama, Winterset, or Carroll), people are going to evaluate for themselves which candidate is most “Ready To Lead” — to quote from Clinton’s promotional materials.

From the looks of things, Dodd, Richardson, and Biden are being taken more seriously here in Iowa, and that’s a good thing.

Will their relentless campaigning and meaty resumes help them to overcome significant disadvantages in fund raising and name recognition? At this point, we cannot know. But it is time to start asking that question more often, because there’s a chance that the answer is yes.