Fire Sale Week for State Legislative Endorsements

This week has been a big one for state legislative endorsements in Iowa. Sen. Joe Biden’s campaign announced State Rep. McKinley Bailey’s endorsement Thursday. Bailey is a veteran of the Iraq War, but he isn’t the only Iraq vet to endorse this week: State Rep. Ray Zirkelbach, who served in Iraq during the 2007 legislative session after winning reelection in 2006, endorsed Sen. Chris Dodd today. Zirkelbach’s endorsement is particularly prestigious for Dodd because he isn’t a firefighter.

Meanwhile, State Rep. Dave Jacoby’s endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama came out this week, and State Rep. Nathan Reichert endorsed Sen. John Edwards.

Do these endorsements matter? Yes and no. They won’t make much of a difference on caucus night, but they help influence perceptions leading up to it — especially when we are still months away. The press is still writing “momentum” stories and “organization” stories, attempting to assess the relative strengths of each candidate’s operation here. That will influence which candidates the caucus goers think are viable enough to support, but it won’t actually persuade many folks to sign supporter cards right off the bat.

It also serves lesser-known candidates more than well known candidates, because it can be a big help for crowd building. It won’t help Obama turn out 300 instead of 150, but it may help a candidate like Biden or Dodd turn out 40 people to their events instead of 20. When a small town State Rep. records an autocall to promote an event, his or her voice is likely to grab at least a few folks’ attention. But again, that is only the beginning of the process of getting support; after people show up to an event, it’s up to the candidate’s message and personality to get commitments from caucus goers.