Taking a Step Back

Since last night’s Democratic debate (I wrote my analysis here), I have been in a thinking mood. I had a really interesting discussion (some might say “argument”) with Taylor Marsh on her show this afternoon, and I have been watching the political coverage online and on TV, but mostly I have been trying to take a step back and reflect on the presidential race, which officially began a year ago this month (Gov. Tom Vilsack announced his candidacy the day after election day, 2006).

Here are some questions about the race in general that are kind of interesting to think about:

• A year ago, what did you think the Presidential race was going to look like? Which of the possible candidates did you expect to jump into the race, and who did you think would win? (Anybody guess former Gov. Mark Warner? Sen. Evan Bayh? Sen. John Kerry?) Are there any candidates whom you were suprised to see?
• Had you even heard of former Governors Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney? Sen. Chris Dodd? Rep. Ron Paul? Did you know Arthur Branch was a former Senator — one who would run for president?
• Did you predict that polling data would show that both a female candidate and a black candidate had a strong chance of winning a general election?
• How much money did you think candidates would raise? Which party’s candidates did you expect to raise more money?
• Where did you expect the candidates to fall on the political spectrum? Did you correctly predict which candidates would run more as “moderates” or “centrists” and which would run as “lefty” candidates? Or, on the Republican side, could you have separated the more moderate candidates from the right-wing candidates?
• Did you think there would be more attacks or fewer?
• Did you expect that the United States would have more combat troops in Iraq, rather than less?
• Did you think Iran would emerge as a major issue in the campaign?
• What else about the presidential race is different from what you would have expected a year ago?

I don’t think my idea from a year ago of how the race would shape up was horribly inaccurate, but I certainly didn’t guess everything right.

The thing is, a lot of us formed impressions of the candidates during the time period after the general election and before the major players started announcing their candidacies in December or January. And even though much has changed about the campaign since then, those initial impressions of each candidate can influence our coverage of the race right now. We should do our best to guard against that.

…And for one additional educational opportunity, if you are so inclined, watch the video from WhyTuesday below. It does a pretty spectacular job explaining the Iowa Caucus system without sounding snooty or resentful.

(Thanks for reading. Back tomorrow!)